You cannot play a provisional shot for a ball that you think is in the water. You must go up and look for the ball first and check if it is indeed in the hazard. Then you may go back and replay the shot or drop based on how the hazard is marked.

bad news my friend, a provisional ball is not an option for a ball lost in a water hazard.

27.2. Provisional Ball
• a. Procedure
If a ball may be lost outside a water hazard or may be out of bounds, to save time the player may play another ball provisionally in accordance with Rule 27-1. The player must inform his opponent in match play or his marker or a fellow-competitor in stroke play that he intends to play a provisional ball, and he must play it before he or his partner goes forward to search for the original ball.

Thank you all for the insight. I read rule 27.2 as if it was lost in a water hazard or O.B.  not lost outside a water hazard.

Suppose you hit a provisional for lost or OB, then hit a second provisional, the original was OB, the 1st provisional is considered in play and you hit your 3rd shot to put it in play. But the first provisional is also OB, so that makes the second provisional the ball in play, and you hit your 5th shot to put it in play.

If the second provisional is lost or OB, then you must go back to the tee and hit your 7th shot.

If the original is found in bounds then neither provision counts.

Rarely will you find hitting 3 from the tee to be your best option for a water hazard, therefore you don't take a provisional for a water hazard.